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To the thread
As I have started my handicapper prepping yesterday as I go over Bris first, then will use DRF and finally wait for Valuecapper to shoot out the contention lines and the ARC. I always evaluate horses with the so called regression vs their competition in terms of two features (Speed Only 1st.) So far as far my data sets...because 3 Year Olds in this race will either run their highest Figures or they will regress base on the amount of starts and the stretch outs to the 1 1/4 bumper car ride.
So first off, So..My +- negative figures for me..show horses with the lower speed figures need to make a huge jump to run up to the averages based on what they have ran. So, as I look horses who run a lower + improve or a slightly - decline tend to be the horses that can take that step up into improving in a race. Again, we are only talking a speed figure. So far 2-3 horses fit my model early.. "The obvious is Just a Touch" and then Mystik Dan. You can also throw in Domestic Product, Honor Marie, and believe it or not Society Man.
That is just a start, post position...track condition, and then positioning and all that dirt being kicked up.
I agree Sierra Leone times are slow and will need a pace to run at but this is 20 horses and traffic. 3 Trips in a row at dead closing running style or not and the extra distance, I am not sure whether he makes it this time. It is those clear that final pole with room to run and rolling. Post and comfort on that backstretch...I laugh here when people talk about Fierceness on the front end here and nobody will go...These trainers know that their horse does not stand a chance and their strategy will be to run as hard as they can to the second call...to 44 in change because they need to clear and settle and not get caught wide .... so the people on here that constantly spit out that no horse can go with Fierceness and force him to tire is ridiculous. Sure he can win..but no way is it cut and dry. Sierra Leone will be charging late, but will it be too late will after 3 times dead closing.
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