Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
A sincere question:
Without any sort of speed and pace figures...how do you determine if Lucky Town's "best race" is capable of beating today's field?
I'm not trying to be a smart-alec here...I am honestly trying to gain some insight from someone whose handicapping I respect.
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A big part of it is looking at the races whatever horse I am interested in has been running in. And then looking at whatever horses they have been running against and seeing how they have come back to run. Obviously that's a little harder if they are coming from different circuits. But I also have made it a point to be very familiar with the circuits I play and the conditions of the races.
is it a perfect system? No way, far from it. But it works for me and has for some time now. I've tried a little bit of everything, including trying to use figures and they have not helped. I understand how they can be useful, but for me, it just muddies up the picture.
I look at races probably very similar to figure players. I try and envision how I think a race will be run. I don't only play trip horses. I play horses that I feel have a good shot of winning that also offer what I perceive to be value based on their odds. Some of it is based on an instinctual guess but I think figure players operate the same way. For me it's probably more instinct, or trusting my eyes.
