Quote:
Originally Posted by DeltaLover
The way you are describing the hand, he is getting more than 8/5 for his money (585 / 338). He will beat you 37 % (note that the pot is protected that adds more complexity to the decision) so he needs 1.7 -1 to call meaning that at the flop he has enough pot odds to call you.
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I think my initial response and your response both contain errors. And, it would seem to be a bit complicated given that it is a 3-way pot with 1 player all-in.
I failed to consider that Vic and the villain have a side pot, and I agree that the villains chances are 37% in that one. And although minor, I also neglected the limpers/blinds who ended up folding.
Please note that before going any further, Vic starts the hand with $70 more than the villain.
The villain's all-in call of Vic was for 425 - 67 (calling the all-in of the first player) = 358.
Against Vic in the side pot, the villain is risking 358 to win Vic's 358. (The other 67 Vic put in went to the main pot where he has an approximate chance of winning 3-way of .379 and the villain's chance is .261).
So against Vic, he needs to win 50% of the time where his estimated chances are 37%. Not Good! (In hindsight), although I imagine only a tiny microscopic number of poker players would even be able to arrive at a close approximation of their required odds of calling while while trying to do in in real time and perhaps eventually having clock called.
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