Quote:
Originally Posted by ElKabong
I've kept a betting log since 1997. It lists about everything about the bet I can possibly log.
*** There's one and only one "reason for bet" that shows a positive roi since 2001***. Physicality.... Not pace advantage, not class advantage, not trainer moves... Physicality.... It shows a positive roi in both win and place bets for 18 consecutive years.
I think it was takach or Parker that said twenty years ago that physicality was the final frontier in profitable handicapping. He / she was pretty much on the mark. The so called whales have become too sharp to beat at their own game.
Guys I know at the Simo are a bit too prideful to make the switch from their traditional handicapping to physicality. Most handicappers have the "I'm smarter than the crowd" syndrome, so none have made any significant changes to their style of handicapping, but their returns have been smaller and smaller as years go by.
I do use TFUS in addition to physicality, but it accounts for maybe 15% of my decision. Other than a pick 4 that starts with a good looking horse, I don't look at pp's until I see a horse that catches my eye. This is an angle AI or whales or whatever will be behind the curve.
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It is impossible to do ‘physicality’ at the simos...you simply must be at the track to do that with any degree of confidence...
