Quote:
Originally Posted by traveler
When you say "bet down" - bet down from what - the morning line?
From gate loading to final odds?
What if you your models odds-line rankings mirror the public? Your fav wins same % as public, 2nd fav same % as public etc. Any ideas on how this could be useful?
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Thinking out loud here. So Wm. Scott tried using the top three choices only, because at that time, the top three in the wagering won ~67% of the time, and placed 90% of the time. Only one of his problems was that the top three at 3 MTP, 2 MTP, Post time, aren't always the top three in the ACTUAL betting. Today, it's probably closer to 69% to 70% by the top three betting odds.
How could that be useful, you ask? I tried Scott's idea, what was it, 35 years ago? and in 10 races you could not determine the top three consistently in maybe 3 or 4 races out of 10. Sometimes it was only 2, sometimes it was 5 out of 10.
So if we could focus our selection efforts on only the top three by pp's, money-flow, or whatever you choose, would that not get us closer to an even playing field? If you only focus your selection efforts to three choices, wouldn't our batting average improve? ROI, not sure?
So back to your question, If we could model an odds line that mirrors the final public odds, reliably, wouldn't selecting a winner or an ABC group for horizontals be improved? Not sure.
