Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
Horses that run well in the Derby typically run well in the Preakness also. They will sometimes switch positions if the trips change, but if I was going to make a general rule, all else being equal, I'd rather have a horse proven in a 20 horse high quality Derby field than a new shooter from cheaper races.
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Twenty or thirty years ago, this was true. But that's when horses were trained up to the Derby properly, and the connections were wanting a Triple Crown race for breeding purposes. Now we have just seen a Derby with multiple horses with two and three starts (and getting bet), with the winner loving the plastic to dirt angle.
Zico lists 5 Peakness winners in the last 10 years that didn't fare well in the Derby (war of will getting interfered with though), but now proclaims that the second place finisher with a sub-par Beyer in a sub-par field is a lock. Well, it's hard to argue that ON PAPER, Epicenter is the most accomplished mule in the race. But of course they don't run the races on paper.
Epicenter should win, but based on racing's trends over the last 40 years, I would hardly be shocked if he bounced and ran 6th. The Derby-Preakness angle works for fit and CLASSY horses. I'm just not a believer (yet) that Epicenter is that good.
I've been wrong before.
