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Old 05-18-2022, 05:03 PM   #56
zico20
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Join Date: May 2014
Location: st louis
Posts: 2,951
Quote:
Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned View Post
Not sure what kind of prices you are looking for, but 5 of the last 9 Preakness winners have won at odds of 6/1 or higher including the last 2 years of $25+ winners.
Lets dissect those, shall we!

2021, Rombauer won. The three top Derby horses skipped the Preakness. Midnight Bourbon, a good horse who ran second, couldn't win a race to save his life. Medina Spirit, who turned out to be a very good horse, was a longshot in the Derby who many felt wouldn't win the Preakness. Concert Tour was a joke being bet down. MS was the 2.40 to 1 favorite. Not a surprise the top three favorites didn't win.

2020 The race was run in October so I don't consider it at all. Swiss Skydiver had four weeks off going in instead of two. Who knows who would have won if it was in May. Irrelevant result that can't be used.

2019 War of Will won. He was the third betting choice behind a 5-2 favorite in Improbable. Maximum Security and Country House didn't run. Either did Code of Honor or Tacitus. Wide open race with a vulnerable favorite that wasn't all that good at the time although Improbable turned out to be a really good horse as a four year old.

2017 Cloud Computing won. What a joke Always Dreaming being 4-5. He sucked! Never won another race. Classic Empire was the clear second choice coming off of a 9 length defeat in the Derby. Rarely does a horse that loses the Derby by that much win the Preakness. When they lose by that much it is hard to back them in the Preakness. The third choice was 9-1. No surprise a middle of the road odds horse won.

2013 Oxbow won. You had a totally overrated Orb sucking up all the money at 3-5. Another Derby winner who never won again. The other eight horses in the race were all between 8-1 and 22-1. Itsmyluckyday was the second choice who was beaten 22 lengths in the Derby. It was a wide open affair after Orb. So no surprise the winner was over 6-1. It was inevitable.

Out of the five times the Preakness winner was 6-1 or more there was a valid reason for each one. Most Preakness winners were logical going back to Point Given in 2001 except Shakleford. 2006 was when Barbaro broke down as the 1-2 favorite. Bernardini was a price but he clearly was the best horse that the public blew. Saturday is back to having a chalk win or another obvious contender.
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