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There was a long break from 1993 to 2009 where the Up Stocks to Down Stocks ratio over a 10 day period never triggered the buy signal by hitting 2 to 1.
On January 8, 2009 it hit 1.96 to 1 -- close enough. The S&P was at 1289. Six months later, on July 8 the S&P was at 2195. Nice gain.
On July 24 the ratio hit 2.34 to 1 and the S&P was at 2172. Six months later on January 24 the S&P hit 2575. A 400 point gain. Not bad.
On February 17, 2014 the ratio hit 1.97 to 1. Again, close enough. Six months later the S&P was at 1971 -- a 100 point gain.
On July 12, 2016 the ratio was 2.19 to 1 and the S&P was at 2152. Where will it be on January 12, 2017?
Historically, the gain has been about 5% after 3 months. So by Oct 15 I would not be surprised to see the S&P at 2259 -- up about 100 points.
Last edited by highnote; 10-04-2016 at 07:02 PM.
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