Class HCP Method
A Handicapping Method that focuses mostly on class. Little to no consideration is given to speed, pace, times, E’s, P’s, S’ or E/P’s. I know this is will be considered short-sighted, especially on a website named PaceAdvantage. I made selections on all races today at Parx(10/10/17) pre-race and will link them here.
What I look at is consistency at win & place and EPS(earnings per start). Then I rank them 1 thru 5 or 6. I recently trotted this method out of the archives when visiting Portland Meadows, since it lends itself to doing a race fairly quickly after you get used to it. Today at Parx, this method hit on 3/9 races, returning $24.80 (4.80, 11.60, 8.40).
I made a mistake in race 1 by eliminating the #3-Sweet Candy Dance(winner). Horses are eliminated if last race was at same class level, and more than 8 lengths back at finish, I generally write NQ next to them. Doing a post mortem, I know nobody on here does that; his last race was a route on turf and his previous race on dirt only 23 days ago would have qualified him, since he’s back on dirt today. That bone headed thinking kept me from a $10.60 winner, where he was (1-1) best bet at 4-1. Generally it’s best to do this the night before and review prior to race. One more reason why it’s so hard to win at this game.
Before doing a race, here are the general rules:
1. Consistency for current year, (Win+Pl)/Starts x 100%. Minimum 6 races, or use last two years. Of course for maidens, this rule is often broken
2. Earnings per start for last two years. I like using two years as it gives some back class.
3. Rank the W+P Consistency percentages with the highest getting a 1, and so on. If two percentages are close(approx. 2-3%) then I rate them the same. So a 50% cons. and 53% would be the same ranking in my mind.
4. Rank the EPS as the highest $/start as a #1, and so on. Rank them the same if $/Start are less than 5% different.
5. Eliminate horse at over 8 lengths back at finish if same level. If at a higher class in last race, then I look for something up close at one or more calls, or at a previous race at this class level.
6. Eliminate horse if laid off over 35 days, or set it to your threshold. That cost me one today in race 8, where #4 won at 57 days off, but had 4 recent workouts. The race was 1 mile, and many others believe a horse coming back to a route has a better chance than in a sprint.
7. Ties in rankings. I.e. Horse A (1-4)= 5 pts. Horse B (4-1) = 5 pts. My rule is if race is a sprint, give the first number(W/P %) more weight. If a route, give the second number(EPS) more weight. So Horse A in the above example would be the play if the race is sprint, and Horse B in a route.
8. Best bets are when you have one horse with (1-1) or 2 pts. & no other horses with a 1 in either category. While you’d think these will all be chalk, they often are decent odds.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=141239
Race 7-10/10/17 Parx- 5f- OC 25k/N2x-Purse 47000
Runs for Luck 8-1 ML 38% - $13,186 (3-2) 5 pts.-Qual.
Swell 15-1 ML (18% - 8900)-NQ looked back to dirt race(12.5k) & made NQ call.
Dom the Bomb 10-1 ML 42%-8250 (2-3) 5 pts- Qual.
Winning the Medal 5-1 ML 17%-15668 (4-1) 5 pts.-Qual
Siralfredthegreat 9-5 ML (75%-17400) Not Qual, >4 mos-1 workout.
Godspeed Tommy 20-1 ML 13%-1840 (5-5) 10 pts.-Qual.
Great Lou 3-1 ML (42%-6100) Not Qual. 40 day layoff
Bluegrass Luck 6-1 ML 53% -4400 (1-4) 5 pts.-Qual.
In this race, we have 4 horses tied at 5 pts. So in a sprint(5f), the tie-breaker is first number, and
is a (1-4) so his consistency makes him the pick. He wins and pays $11.60-6.80. The
ran second in spite of being off over 4 months.
ran third with a 40 day layoff.
Race 9-10/10/17 Parx-$5000-N2Y-1M70y-Purse $20,000
Castaway 5-2 ML 38%-$3388 (2-3) 5 pts.-Qual.
High Dollar Kitten 20-1 ML (33%-3280) -Not Qual; form 7-9-½ bl’s
Star of Sarava 20-1 ML 18% -1990 (5-6) 11 pts.-Qual
Franklin 12-1 ML 40% -2750 (2-4) 6 pts.-Qual.
J R Jellybean 15-1 ML (42%-4397) -Not Qual; form 4-14-¾ bl’s
Picozza 12-1 ML 11% -2360 (6-5) 11 pts.-Qual.
Oliver Rush 5-1 ML 21% - 2700 (4-4) 8 pts.-Qual.
Alaapatique 3-1 ML 50%- 3800 (1-1) 2 pts. -Qual.
Flash Paws 6-2 ML (30% -3455) -Not Qual 39 days and form
Demand 10-1 ML 31% - 3620 (3-2) 5 pts.-Qual
is a (1-1) best bet with no other 1’s for consistency or EPS. Although I prefer that NQ horses don’t have higher numbers, which
JR Jellybean has for EPS, but it didn’t matter. The
won and paid $8.40-4.80. The
almost stole it at the wire, but
prevailed.
I didn’t talk about Turf rules. I do it the same, with the exception that instead of last two years EPS, I use turf earnings instead. To be qualified I also want a 10% or 30% ITM in turf races only.
I am currently refining the class rules to incorporate purse value relative to EPS, and also some of Scott’s PCR class points for the last 10 races. Still a work in progress.
I’ve experimented eliminating all Qualifying rules for form and recency, and it sometimes finds a nice longshot. One final note, If a NQ horse would clearly be the (1-1) Best bet, I may use in my exactas.
