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Old 02-03-2018, 06:17 PM   #5
GMB@BP
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Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
Thanks for all the responses, and Poindexter's was very detail.

I almost exclusively bet win, but am super selective when I bet. It usually involves two factors, I usually identify a weak favorite and I find a horse that has attributes that make me think they are likely to win the race (through normal everyday handicapping). I would say my definite strength is assessing the real chances of the favorites. Wish we had exchange wagering!

But the reason I brought up the question is I have heard a lot of times people talk about gaining a positive expectation and then forming bets to capitalize on that expectation, and doing so with bets even though they may not have the other criteria that usually takes me to bet.

I think my thoughts are closers to what Denny is saying but maybe a bit nuanced.

For example say I didnt like Arrogate going into the San Diego Handicap last summer. Say he attracted 50% of the Pick 3 pool. Since I didnt like him and pitched him, pending on how strong some of the other favorites are, I have now created a very positive situation, one which allows me to be very creative with many combinations in the pick 3 and likely make money on the situation. If I liked a horse in the sequence then my expectation would go up from there.

See I am always pretty conservative, and thus dont win to much and dont lose to much. Yet I read about players who once that positive expectation is created then its katey bar the doors, the money is coming in.

Hoping that makes sense.
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