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Originally Posted by castaway01
Though it might not seem like it when you're wagering, those "things you can't account for" will happen equally to both the favorite and the 90-1 shot (actually, I'd argue that the favorite would have more of an ability to overcome them as well as more talent to be in better racing position, but still...). So, sometimes the things you can't account for will hurt and sometimes they'll help, but in the end they'll even out. In one individual race, sure, "bad luck" can affect the outcome, but over the course of 1000 races it shouldn't affect your ability to pick the winner any more than any other random factor.
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It's not about picking winners. You can have a day where you hit five races and lose, and another day in which you have one winner and win.
It's really about positive expectation viz. overcoming the takeout. If you're playing races that have a negative expectation, you'll have your share of wins but, in the long run, you'll lose. IMO, the reason those races have a negative expectation is because there are too many variables. The handicapper is in a position of having to solve X + Y = 4.
This concept is harder to see in horseracing, as opposed to, say a coin flip situation where you'd receive .95 for heads, but have to pay 1.05 for tails. A public handicapper has to play too many of this type of race to show a positive roi on a year in year out basis.
