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Originally Posted by badcompany
I was going to say something to this effect.
Luck might not have been the right word. What I'm really talking about are the things you couldn't have known beforehand.
Every race has its variables but some have more than others. At some point, an educated guess becomes a wild guess.
That's why I don't consider it a knock on a public handicapper for not showing a positive roi. He's forced to take too many wild guesses.
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Though it might not seem like it when you're wagering, those "things you can't account for" will happen equally to both the favorite and the 90-1 shot (actually, I'd argue that the favorite would have more of an ability to overcome them as well as more talent to be in better racing position, but still...). So, sometimes the things you can't account for will hurt and sometimes they'll help, but in the end they'll even out. In one individual race, sure, "bad luck" can affect the outcome, but over the course of 1000 races it shouldn't affect your ability to pick the winner any more than any other random factor.
