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Alright finally some free time. Not going to link to everything because some is outdated.
Dontesk/Luhansk;
- Lyman is encircled. Russian forces there will surrender or be destroyed.
- Ukraine pressing towards the roads linking Svatove and Kreminna which will split again Russian resupply and logistics.
- Looking like a similar collapse to the one in early September along the Russian front as they flee to the next line of easily reinforced infrastructure.
Referendums;
- To date nobody has recognized them. Literally nobody. Maybe a North Korea?
Belarus;
- Has mobilized for reasons unclear. Lukashenko cannot enter the war. Both the civilian population and military will coup him if he does. Most likely done because Russia wants to stand 20k recently mobilized troops there. Hoping to draw a Ukrainian blocking force most likely.
Kherson;
- Ukrainians have finally smashed through Russian defenses north of the city. Russia has approximately 20,000 troops trapped on the west side of the river. This situation is very fluid and happening in the last 10 hours or so.
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I'm starting to wonder if trying to draw NATO directly into the conflict would actually be a smart move for Putin.
He's going to lose anyway but the prospect of retaking Crimea and Sevastopol is 12-18 months away for Ukraine. A direct NATO involvement makes that much more politically precarious for the west.
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Dumbest timeline confirmed...
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