Quote:
Originally Posted by Seabiscuit@AR
The current strategy being employed by syndicates and big betting insiders is clearly one of waiting till the last second
The idea of putting a big bet on early to put other players off is so 1990s
The big players with positive ROI systems don't care if they miss a bet by being shut out. Being shut out will cost them some theoretical profit but the most important thing is to make positive ROI bets. If you put that bet on a bit early these days you can show your hand to your opposition and then your bet can turn ROI negative
Better off being shut out a few times and having ROI 1.03 on $3 million worth of bets than betting earlier and having ROI of 0.99 on $4 million worth of bets
It is impossible to not be shut out in the days of simulcast betting where races clash
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If you put in the big bet early, it makes the odds lower, which means the computer teams won't bet as much as there is less meat on the bone for them to chew off. It has nothing to do with putting them off.
If they think horse A should be 2-1 and he is 6-1 on the board, the will bet X. If the same horse is 3-1 on the board due to a much larger bet earlier, the will bet a sum much smaller than X. Thus the person betting 60k has a greater percentage of the pool and an bigger payoff. This isn't about mind games, it is math.
