Tapit was just like Dunkirk, except more raced, and what else? The race was sloppy that day. Closers in the slop have a tougher time (especially if they lack foundation) ... but for Dunkirk (don't think he would have won on a fast track either) the key was more that the track was off rather than the 2 year old thing.
It's hard to imagine many horses better than Curlin. He was an absolute superstar, lightly raced at three, but he also won the Arkansas Derby. And yet Dunkirk was the next Curlin (who didn't win?)? Like I said, it was different for Dunkirk and we'll never know.
The only hard and fast rule I've made from the last few years is this: I will never bet a horse to win the Belmont after the first two UNLESS he has solid 2 year old foundation --- even if he romps in the Derby and Preakness. I just won't do it.
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