Quote:
Originally Posted by taxicab
Yes.
It's absolutely a function of how fast he ran early.
Therein lies his problem.
As of right now,HS hasn't shown he understands what he's doing.
His first out romp was due to his raw speed(cashing in on two biases),and his love of mud(the Danzig line is giant in the goo).
All Rosario had to do was point him in the right direction,and the race was over.
The race didn't test Scroll........I don't think he got anything(mentally) out of his gallop.
And it showed in the FOY........Scroll just ran off......like the time before.......you could see it coming.
The final result was different,because the circumstances were much different.
If Scroll would of took a step forward,his FOY come home's would of resembled last years speedy winner Promises Fulfilled.
Here are PF numbers from last year:
24.59/24.21/24.99/6.58..............even and professional splits for a speed horse.
The other way I look at Hidden Scroll is comparing him to Mott's other top 3yo's.
In order of where they are:
1) Tacitus: not even close.......he's far ahead of Mott's other two.
Mott started him earlier,he shows a stride that covers a lot of ground easier than most..........and most importantly,you can actually see him improving race to race......and figuring it out in his races.
In his first race he showed talent,but he only ran in spots......quite green he was.
In his second race he was still kind of dicey early........but you could see the light bulb go on his last quarter.
In the Tampa Bay Derby he was polished.......he's figured it out.
Now he's got to get the gate right.......he's been kind of clumsy out of the gate in all three of his races.
2) Country House: He's talented.......and he's really green.
But he'll settle in for you,and that's an indication he's on his way .........he'll get it right with more racing........he's really talented.
3) Hidden Scroll.......Incomplete.
All he's shown is blazing speed.
He's a far cry from understanding what he's supposed to do.
He's going to have to be a new animal in the Florida Derby to be something.
And I don't think he can flip the switch considering where he's at off of his first two......I think it's asking a lot of him to turn in to a professional overnight.
That being said........a lot of people see something in him that I don't........and I've been wrong many times before.
So if he improves a ton in his FLA Derby...........I tip my hat to him,and consider him a player.
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I disagree with pretty much your entire post. I feel like you have some kind of bias against Hidden Scroll and that it might be impacting your opinion on him which is fine.
But if Country House is green (I actually agree with this) why do you feel he will get it with more racing, but you’ve basically written Hidden Scroll off as a head strong one dimensional speed ball after two races?
His first out romp was bias aided a bit, but the runner up was 11th early, so I think people are overestimating just how bias aided it was. He ran a hole in the wind because he’s a very good horse. He was beat about 3 for all the money in the FOY. The horse he dueled with was beaten about 30 lengths. You’re acting like Hidden Scroll was up the track.
I’m not into comparing raw times for horses in different years...but according to Timeform the first 7 finishers in Hidden Scroll’s maiden race matched or exceeded their fig next out. It was obviously a strong race.
Lightly raced horses can improve a lot from start to start. Especially those with raw talent in a strong barn. FWIW I think you’re grossly overestimating Tacticus who had a dream set up and trip in a bad race at Tampa.
