Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff P
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Yes. Definitely in the discussion.
And parlay that opinion - the 'Preakness Future'? thing, this year, for the same horse.
If I understand what I skimmed, and read on various tweets correctly, he was 4-1!?
in 'Preakness futures? I mean, maybe it 'sounds' semi fair to a casual fan of Forte or whatever, but a latent payout wager, on a two-race affair, where you don't really beat parlay even if he first Wins the Derby and enters the Preakness in stride as the chalk?
I didn't participate in that pool (now noticing Tapit Trice as pretty much just as awful tepid price 6-1
! )
I'm having bonehead moment just getting an understanding around how the odds even make sense. Is the takeout really insane, or just a bad format, etc... "Mage" was 30-1? ... I mean even a laser guided missile like correctly singling Mage... How does that work in a parlay 15-1, and even money and it's still only ~30-1, and doesn't account for whether he misses the race.
Personally, I don't have to look far for 'Worst' knucklehead Derby wagers.
Yes I am impressed about how social media has this freakish talent pool where many horseplayers bat 1.000, and these wonderful 'IQ' discussions go on where everyone in the thread is self-reported 140+, yet I'm delusional enough to make terrible bets all...the...time
.
From knowing
Tapit Trice was extremely likely to be out of the Exacta this year at his 2nd-choice price, and knowing
Angel of Empire was highly competitive, that alone is enough puzzle pieces to hold your own, and I still was pretty awful this year, (in addition to the misses on the AoE exactas, +others, also had
Two Phils more of a 'B' than an 'A', and somehow my usually solid Florida prep understanding was bad enough to dismiss the obviously somewhat talented
Mage with things like a the FOY trip basically not connecting to brain cells)...
or 2022 when I had Oaks / Derby tix w/
Crown Pride and Summer is Tomorrow, - the later because of belief of a pace impact, yet in spite of what I felt was a fast pace with an underrated leader, I never even considered to use plodders like Barber Road or Rich Strike under a relatively clean and simple Oaks '22.
