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Originally Posted by whodoyoulike
I'm not sure I'm presenting this correctly but shouldn't a good computer program provide legitimate contenders and it would be up to the handicapper to decide whether the best ones are worth a wager?
If it so happens to select the favorite and the horse really was the best and wins, where's the flaw?
A program which doesn't consider current odds wouldn't be capable of adding additional weight to the favorite. I see a number of people who wager on the higher odds contender(s) because the #1 selection happens to be the favorite. If the payout(s) aren't acceptable for the wager, they should pass the race.
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I responded to this the other day but I didn't have that much time and wanted to get back to your questions. I think this is a good subject. Do you use a computer program, or any type of handicapping, to rank contenders using the standard and obvious factors and then just look for value based on the morning line, or an odds line that the system produced? This is not necessarily a bad approach and could pay off with patience, providing you have a pretty good idea of what the odds should be.
Another approach is to use a method or methods that just points out longshots that have a shot and bet the ones that actually go off over a certain odds, say 6-1, or whatever seems to work in the long run.
A related subject pertaining to win betting in particular would be, "is it ever smart to bet lower odds overlays?" In other words, say your program or method picks a horse on top and makes it 8-5 but it's going off at 5-2. Is this really a good bet? In the long run, will 5-2 shots produce a profit? You'd have to hit at least 28% of these bets on 5-2 shots to show a small profit.
To me, horses in the lower range odds are difficult to profit on. Naturally, if you're playing a pick 4 or something like that, you have to use horses that look like they can win. But for win wagers, longer odds overlays are better bets. Most handicapping contests are decided by highest ROI and the contest winner is usually someone who bet all longshots. To win the contest betting 5-2 shots would be virtually impossible.
