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Old 04-28-2008, 02:34 PM   #31
ryesteve
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 3,352
Let me toss some numbers into the mix. First, let me point out these are TSN figs, not Beyers, but I don't think that should make a huge difference.

Anyway, so far in 2008, 193 3yos have run in Graded races with a purse of $250k or higher. The average best-of-last-3 fig for these horses was 92.2. In 2007, 165 3yos ran in similar races thru April; their average best-of-last-3-fig was 93.5. Yep, that's a pretty decent difference; however, with around 15% fewer horses under consideration, the difference could be attributed to fewer weaker horses dragging down the average. Going back to 2006, which I think we'd agree was a pretty good crop, there were 180 3yos who ran in such races through April and their average best-of-last-3-fig was 92.3, which is basically the same as this crop. So based on this, I wouldn't be able to call this bunch inferior.
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