Quote:
Originally Posted by Running Amok
MJC922, thanks.
I was going to suggest that perhaps doubles are bets that offer a better chance at long-term success. Horizontal wagers in general would seem to be less affected by CAWs because no last second change in odds can take place since wagers must be placed before the first leg.
I use Excel a lot and created a spreadsheet using speed and pace for making an odds line. But like you said though, you have to find where you have an edge.
It doesn't do so well in maiden races with several first-time starters and doesn't do well in turf races. But I've tweaked it some and so far I like what I'm seeing.
Would I be correct to assume when you process the DD probable matrix from the previous race, the Will Pay prices are used to project win odds from it for the second leg?
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I personally wouldn't bother with longer horizontals, those are blind pools, you may be betting on an overlay, then again you may instead be betting on a significant underlay, it's entirely unknown in the latter legs of the sequence. The 'edge' anyone has on this game is only a tick in odds anyway so chasing after blind pools to me is a non-starter, half of the wagering decision to bet or not to bet is invisible to people doing this, but whatever. I understand why people do it because if they hit they can score out big and if they're recreational that's simply the end game for them. As for the DD probables, I process the whole matrix once the wagering completes for the race, you can get it from Amwager and do a copy/paste into excel. The willpays I don't have a need for. Willpays are the race winner's probables from the first leg, nothing more, it's a subset of what I've already processed. If that's all someone is using it means they're looking at just a slice of the wagering that was actually done, i.e. they're looking at less than 10% of the actual wagering in the pool if a 10-1 horse wins the first leg. You want to process all of the combinations to get the best projected odds for yourself. Anyone who does this I can say with certainty it's the single biggest change anyone can implement to their game today. I would go so far as to say none of us should be betting a red cent without it.
