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Originally Posted by JustRalph
this reminds me of the old coin flip theory. Invoking the law of averages.
I don't think any other year has any bearing on the current one.
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I agree with Ralph that each event is completely independent. Obviously the lined is becoming blurred concerning “
historical” trends in most sports.
Having said that…
The proposition is (
possibly) taking less than 5-1 and asking this of the animal…
- Go from MSW / GR3 / GR2 / GR1 with no margin for error…
- Go from 7f / 8.5f / 9f / 10f with no margin for error…
- Go from fields of questionable depth to 19 of the best his generation has to offer…
- Face the fastest pace of his life to date.
- All of that and more in a span of roughly 100 days.
Positives...
- Obvious raw talent.
- Strong pedigree evident by his 7 figure sale after his dominate MSW win.
- Facing a crop where no on has yet stamped themselves a dominate runner.
- Running over his “home” track where Helen Pitts trained him for months prior to his GP debut.
Like most betting propositions there is a combination of positive / negative angles. However, unlike most day to day gambles this one involves the once in a lifetime circus surrounding this event not to mention the most important factor…Potentially a relatively small return from speculation.
