Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Your assertion that Baffert's cheating could somehow be "properly weighed" in our handicapping process is too ridiculous to deserve a reply..
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I agree with what you are saying if you include the word "properly".
The issue is that we often don't know when or why a horse jumps up. We just know that a lot of them do for certain trainers and we should try to build it into our thinking. This problem goes back decades for me and I still struggle with it. Some people have access to information and know WHEN to bet. The rest of us are using stats and darts making very inexact guesses.
A few months back I was part of long discussion about a certain Baffert horse that everyone thought was overbet. Even after she lost I kept saying she was more likely to move up than everyone appreciated. I wasn't just thinking of great training and hay and oats at the time. I was including other possibilities. I don't know exactly what's going on and when. But I have data and experience.
