The materials mix of the Saratoga dirt surface saw a change prior to the 2017 meet.
The following article from July 6, 2017 now sits behind a paywall. That wasn't the case when I read it a few weeks before opening day of the 2017 meet, and below is a partial quote.
TimesUnion.com | by Wendy Liberatore | July 6, 2017 | Updated: July 7, 2017 8 a.m.
NYRA upgrades track surface in advance of Saratoga racing season:
https://www.timesunion.com/local/art...g-11270686.php
I bolded the last sentence because I think it's important if you are trying to understand track bias.
Clay holds on to moisture a lot longer than sand and topsoil.
For the 2016 and prior meets the Saratoga dirt surface seemed to dry out quickly, and speed was the universal bias (at least based on historical win rates of early pace factors in my databases.)
Starting with the 2017 meet:
The track bias for the dirt surface changed.
Speed has done reasonably well PROVIDED the dirt surface is completely dry.
But after a rain, it takes longer to dry out than it previously did.
And until that happens, the track is more tiring than it previously was.
I'm not saying the old surface was better or anything like that.
What I am saying is that every track surface is unique.
The materials mix, track maintenance, and weather all play a part in shaping track bias.
-jp
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