Wow, been brutal since my last update. Through 370 wagers, now down about $35. I think I had maybe 3 or 4 winners in the last 45 bets.
I'm going to have to reset things over the next couple of weeks. There is what I think will be a very key factor missing in my work so far, due to sample size. I needed to build up the race numbers before I could use it. It has to do with expected race shape, and breaking out races of different shapes and treating each separately from the others. To date, all race shapes have been lumped into one bucket, which is somewhat like treating grass and dirt as if there is no difference.
So, I am doing the work of changing code and spreadsheets to account for the new data, and I'll start my 2,000 wager count over once it is done.
As for what I've done so far, I consider it a success. First, the software is working without major bugs. That's a miracle
Second, my little bankroll survived, even if smaller than I started. I pretty much expected a small loss since I am wagering on sub-optimal sample sizes across the board. I knew that I'd be making bad wagers in spots, and not making good wagers in other spots. Having less than a 5% net loss through almost 400 wagers is not bad, considering.
This update to my little system is the last major one that I have in mind at this time, so I fully expect to make the changes and wager 2,000 times to see what happens. I'll be expecting a small loss again, since I'll actually be backtracking on sample size again. But, assuming I survive the 2,000 wagers, I hope to move into positive territory from there.
