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Originally Posted by thaskalos
If I do some "comprehensive work" on my own play this past year, and I fully determine my "edge" in the given pools...can I expect that this "edge" will materialize THIS year as well?
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How well do your picks distribute? There should be a similarity between 100 picks, 500 picks, and 1000 picks. I also believe your 1st pick should outperform your 2nd. Your 2nd pick should outperform you 3rd. And down the table. If not-- chuck it, and start over.
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Wind extinguishes a candle and energizes fire.
Likewise with randomness, uncertainty, chaos: you want to use them, not hide from them. You want to be fire and wish for wind. -- Antifragile, Nassim Taleb
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