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Old 10-28-2016, 09:51 PM   #4
thaskalos
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Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,533
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2low
And we all can play. All you need is a strategy and a commitment to discipline and your small bankroll, which you will turn into a big bankroll. If you've got that covered, feel free to add your running story to the thread if you'd like.

We are starting small whatever that means to you - for me, just under $100 - and building it into a very large bankroll, whatever that means to you. Our primary goal is to not lose the starting bankroll. Our stretch goal is to grow our starting bankroll.

Background: I was looking back through my old posts just for fun and found this:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...&postcount=189

The quoted post was and is generally the way I approach horse racing. I failed at that time, but I've continued to believe in my core theories. I knew that I had some critical missing pieces to the puzzle in my software due to lack of programming ability and time. I've now fixed those and tweaked a few other things, and I feel like if I am going to be successful, it's now or never.

My method: I've hacked together an excell/VBA based software package that is essentially a black box. I run my software on the tracks that are running once scratches are available, and place Win, Place and/or Show bets on the horses that it tells me to bet. I'm betting 2% of daily starting bankroll. I seek value in my approach, not in an individual horse. Been there, failed at that.

I placed my first wager using my strategy on September 18th. I am now up to 247 wagers total: 70 Place wagers for a 10cent loss, 127 Place wagers for a $33.20 win and 50 Win wagers for a $5.20 win.

Obviously, my sample is far too small to draw any conclusions. My hope is that I can grow my bankroll to a point where I can afford to place EX and TRI wagers, should the data I'm tracking on those bets prove to have promise once I reach that point.

I am adding new tracks to my software as they open. By this time next year, I should have all U.S. thoroughbred tracks in operation, or none

Off we go!
IMO...the betting unit should fluctuate in accordance with the difficulty of the particular wager. 2% of bankroll is the right amount for win-bets, but the place-bets carry a much lesser risk...and the show-bets, even more so. If we are going to recalculate our bet after every play...then I think that 2% for win, 3% for place, and 4% for show would be a better alternative.

And, when it comes time to include exactas and trifectas in our "portfolio"...then a 2% of bankroll betting unit would be very excessive.
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