Quote:
Originally Posted by Niko
I'm still trying to figure out why he went from a 27-30% trainer to an average 15% trainer. It's not simply regression to the mean and it's not because he's forgotten how to place his horses. New vet, someone gives a warning and not tell anyone, personal problems? Tough game to begin with, tougher trying to figure out the behind the scenes action.... although it can show up midway through a race  |
Did he really go from 27-30% to average (15-20%) or was the 27-30% win rate explainable by chance given the small numbers?
I understand statistics but don't come close to understanding when a sample size has statistical significance and leave it to experts to determine when that level is reached. From my reading of the work of Dr. Parkin and the Equine Injury Database, it takes some pretty big numbers to have confidence and when it comes to trainers we rarely get those sample sizes.
If that's the case, much of these discussions are speculation, or worse, spurious correlations, for example if trainer A is winning at 40% he must be cheating.
