Quote:
Originally Posted by ultracapper
What a great thread. A fabulous demonstration on how, in general, horse race handicappers are challenged to just apply common sense to a particular question. Just good old common sense will tell you that a horse breaking through the gate is not favorable, whether the horse is 1/5 or 50/1. When I bet on a horse, I just want everything to go smooth. Unnecessary drama of any kind is a reason to put your money back in your pocket. Anybody that has won on a horse that broke through the gate has said to themselves, "Whew, dodged a bullet there."
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One has to be very careful when using what they call "common sense". It used to be common sense that the Earth was flat and that the sun went around the Earth. It used to be common sense that boxers abstained from sex for months before a fight or should not swallow water between rounds. that's why we developed science and research methods to debunk a lot of what passes for common sense.
So that since common sense says that horses that break through the gate are at a disadvantage you must think that the study done by the poster here to prove that hypothesis is a waste of time including all this discussion. Why would you call this fabulous if we are wasting time on this "scientific stuff" when we have good ol common sense? Why do any studies and who needs scientific research when we have "common sense"
If by common sense one means rational thinking, there is nothing less common than common sense.
By the way, when you dodge a bullet it means that the bullet missed and you are unharmed. The bullet that as dodged was the horse running off and being scratched or even injured. If not you dodged it and were free to win the race with no ill effect from breaking through.
