Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board


View Single Post
Old 06-25-2018, 02:43 AM   #26
Parkview_Pirate
Registered User
 
Parkview_Pirate's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 1,951
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pensacola Pete View Post
Full meeting" is defined to be 50 or more racing dates OR at least eight consecutive weeks.
Interesting question. My best guess is maybe a half dozen or so, while there actually may be a modest increase of localized "bush league" meets for residual thoroughbred, standardbred and quarter horse owners.

This happens for a number of reasons:

1. Demographics - ten more years of the current racing fan base dying off faster than replacement will be negative. I don't know if anyone has some of the hard data to back this opinion up, but the trend appears to be the older, wealthier bettors and owners are not being replaced as fast as they are lost.

2. Economics - the Millennials are having a much harder go of making careers than us Boomers, and there's no reversal of that trend. It's hard to be player or a fan when you're living in your parent's basement, and your disposable income is non-existent. Recent data from other sports (NFL, NBA, MLB, and NASCAR) and casino reports indicate contraction is taking place, and with higher housing costs, higher taxes, higher food prices, and student loan debt which cannot be discharged, many younger people have a steep enough hill to climb.

3. Politics - Make/Keep America Great Again may allow Trump to stay in office for eight years, but the "successes" so far are much more Potemkin Village than substance, with only suspect .GOV stats backing it. 2025 could be chaotic. States and the .FED starving for "revenue" are hardly likely to be much help to racing, and will continue to be parasitic, killing the host. Trends toward socialism and bigger government, if they continue, lead the U.S. down the road to a Soviet/Red China form of government (name one Great Russian or Chinese race horse?), or to a break up of the U.S. into sub-regions, where racing may or may not be favored as entertainment. PETA (or its derivatives) may outlaw the sport, though horse ownership may increase a smidge in some regions due to the next reason # 4.

4. Rising transportation costs - how is racing affected if gas goes to $10 or $12 a gallon? How international does the sport remain if "carbon credits" are introduced to limit air transport? Even today, we're just one skirmish in the Middle East or one sabotaged pipeline away from shortages, and I for one don't believe Elon Musk and Tesla can violate the laws of physics to create electric airplanes and horse vans that are economically viable. Nor do I believe that the "shale boom" is sustainable, built on an iffy debt model, and typical wells short-lived compared to ones in the ever shrinking conventional fields, and of course extracting a lighter grade of crude not as favored by U.S. refineries. With war, refugee migrations, famine and potential food shortages due to changing weather patterns and growing populations, I think within 10 years rationing of fossil fuels will be a very real possibility, and racing and other leisure activities will be well down in the queue for consumption.

Just my three cents....
Parkview_Pirate is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
 
» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:50 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.