Quote:
Originally Posted by highnote
Nitro -- what kind of tote data do you use?
I only saw the pool totals and the odds on the HKJC website. I have never been able to find the win bet amounts on the individual horses.
Some U.S. based ADWs display the win pool bets on each horse. However, I noticed an error in the displayed data recently at one site.
I would feel more confident about the integrity of the data if I could get the pool data directly from HKJC.
|
I know what you mean! I’ve had pretty good success with the tote data posted on TVG. The data is used for analysis purposes only. Fortunately, I can pretty much tell by 10 minutes to post which are the potential betting candidates. The final selections are made by 4-5 mins to post. There are occasional glitches, so I rely solely on the actual HK odds (-1 point) to calculate my Dutch win bets.
I’ve also been informed that other ADWs may offer more stable feeds, but I’m letting my mentor (the tote analysis developer) investigate those options. He’s also developing a full blown statistical analysis for the entire meet (807 races). It will show the hit frequencies and their relationships to both the Classes, and Distances that are run with consideration for the racing surface. The goal for the future is to identify and utilize those race conditions demonstrating a greater hit frequency in order to allow for Dutch play below the current 50% profit margin criteria. It also should point out those conditions with less success and help to avoid playing those races even when the profit margin is very high (and sometimes very hard to pass up).
Passing a potentially losing bet in the Dutching game is just as important as a win when totaling the O.A. profit margin at the end of the day.
