Quote:
Originally Posted by BaconLover
My main angle is to find reasons why favorites might lose. That opens the door to value. Some things to look for include the following:
1. A favorite with higher speed ratings that drops in class, but hasn’t shown that he can cut a mile or he previously only follows horses without making a move. He will likely try to make an early move in a race as heavy fav and may not last.
2. A favorite that won his previous race at long odds, but whose speed rating was higher than normal. Perhaps the stars aligned that day and he got a perfect trip, but he might not have the same luck next time.
3. Playing against everybody betting on Foiled Again to win his 100th.
4. Seeing favorites draw post positions that don’t suit their running styles. (E.g., McWicked drawing the 6-hole last week without having early speed or knowing that Takter is prepping his trotters and won’t be gunning from an outside post without big money on the line.)
5. A favorite that doesn’t put up a strong last quarter to finish his miles. Just because he can finish in 28.3 after a hot pace doesn’t mean he will finish in 27.0 after a slow to moderate pace.
6. A favorite that lost last time despite having a perfect trip. If he didn’t have an excuse, then don’t give him one, especially at short odds.
The key is to identify these situations and figure out how to maximize your returns. If you think a chalk is vulnerable, but you think he will likely hit the board, then maybe a multi-leg wager is best. If you think the fav might not hit the board, then go for a tri or super.
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Good points Bacon! One of my favorite anti favorite angles is to simply bet against any favorite that doesn't figure to leave the gate and has post 6, 7, 8 on a half mile track, or an outside post on a five eighths track. You have to be nuts to bet a favorite that you think is going to try to win from off the pace. I see them get beat all the time.
