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Thanks for the references, Ray. Good reads!
Maybe it’s me, but so much emphasis is given to how to pick winners, yet I see so little on how to bet a live 10-1 or 20-1 shot. There are many variables to consider, such as the following:
1. Is your LLS (live longshot) 10-1 but actually the 3rd favorite in the race? Or is he 10-1 and the 6th favorite? In the former, there are likely 1 or 2 heavy favs, so the gimmick value might not be there and a win bet might be best. In the latter, there is serious gimmick value because a 6th fav or way under the radar.
2. Starting a multileg wager, especially a p4 or p5, with a LLS pays much better than catching a LLS in the middle to last legs instead. Since players can see the high odds in the 1st leg, they tend to shy away from him and will include other short to mid favorites instead.
3. A LLS with a low morning line is probably not “dismissed” in gimmicks as much and would likely pay less than what you’d like.
The one thing I tell friends who are trying to understand horse racing is that this game is better than any game in a casino because...the odds that a horse pays to win has nothing to do with his actual chances of winning. The payout is based on who the public thinks will win. If you can outsmart the consensus, you can win big.
I love harness racing because there are more reasons for a favorite to lose, which allows us the opportunity to win big more often.
This is why my primary angle starts with finding vulnerable favorites.
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