ROI data
And here is ROI data for betting the top figure for 2010-2014:
Just winners for variants.
Split just Winner(AQU) - 84.159%
Split just Winner(SA) - 84.936%
Split just Winner(GP) - 86.047%
Winner Projected.
Split w/ Projected(AQU) - 84.129%
Split w/ Projected(SA) - 79.725%
Split w/ Projected(GP) - 89.122%
Variants based on horses ITM
Split ITM(AQU) - 84.144%
Split ITM(SA) - 84.921%
Split ITM(GP) - 86.033%
Projects variants based on horses ITM
Split w/ Projected ITM(AQU) - 88.725%
Split w/ Projected ITM(SA) - 83.443%
Split w/ Projected ITM(GP) - 89.472%
Overall projecting the variant based on ITM entries, seems like the way to go. I wonder why SA is such an outlier.
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