Projected Final Times for use in making Variants
I was recently remaking my Speed Figures and in the process of doing so I needed to create daily variants. I am currently just taking the final time minus the class par. And splitting this up by dirt/turf/sprint/route.
That got me to reading and doing some experimentation. Using simple track and distance conversion tables as a projection, I got the following results comparing to the current final time for the year of 2014. It is the sum of absolute difference between the two divided by the total number of races.
Comparing Class Par to Final Time.
Par (AQU) - 2.587
Par (SA) - 1.701
Comparing Previous Final time to Final Time.
Final Time (AQU) - 10.493
Final Time (SA) - 11.486
Projected Final time to Final Time.
Projected Final Time (AQU) - 4.0302
Projected Final Time (SQ) - 4.932
I tried a couple of other methods including Weighted Least Squares and SVM Regression, both showed worse results than just using the Previous Final Time. I plan on plugging in the Projected Time into my variant making function and measuring ROI next. What all do use to make projected figures? I'd really be interesting in hearing how you incorporate pace into the calculation.
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