Quote:
Originally Posted by Frankie D
2. Is it just an estimation, MY estimation, based on the relative strength as my handicapping indicates? Would 10 different people come up with 10 different estimations of a value betting line?
3. Are there some really authoritative books or writings of betting value line? Maybe Pizzola or Cramer? Any software that does this, or is this just the programmers estimation based on his handicapping
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For #2? Probably yes if we're talking about assigning odds to contenders. Definitely yes if it has to be done for all of the horses in a race.
For #3? If you haven't read Steve Fierro's The Four Quarters of Horse Investing then I suggest you do. Then try assigning odds based on his templates. It's harder than it seems. After that you have to track your odds assignments with actual win percentages. Do your 2-1s win 33% of the time? Do your 4-1s win 20% of the time? Do your 6-5s come in at 45%? You get the picture. If they don't, how can you bet overlays when there's no way of knowing if you have one?
And it just gets more difficult as the odds increase. There's less than a 2% difference between a horse at 6-1 and 7-1. Is your handicapping prowess and fair odds assignment good enough to differentiate the 2%?
