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Originally Posted by traveler
Focus on 3 choices? Sure, but it doesn't matter if you focus on the field of 12 or 3 - you start with the field and handicap your way down to say 3. Schwartz always liked idea of half field plus 1 are the contenders - makes no diff - you still gotta make a choice of which one to bet or how many to bet.
You only make money when you differ from the public at a high enough strike rate and at at a price to overcome the take and breakage plus a positive return. So you gotta be at least 20% better. You need to find the races where Juan Q Publico is off by 20% or more on horses you like.
You pick 123 public picks 234. You figure 1 at 35%, public says 10%. That is what you want, obvious but every race isn't playable unless you have a computer based team.
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Is that the margin of difference you look for? Roughly a 250% difference? Or would 100% be enough?
Do you ever consider the reverse of that? Meaning, say the ML and your own line has a similar odds line of say, 8%(12/1), the public(whoever that is) says it's 20%(4-1). Does that have any interest to you?
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Last edited by FakeNameChanged; 10-21-2020 at 09:26 AM.
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