Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I understand that the final odds are fairly efficient and that the collective mind of all horse players (which includes sophisticated computer models, better informed insiders, and a lot of very smart individuals) is probably going to outperform the odds line any individual can make.
That said, this game is still about finding things that are NOT being reflected on the board.
Two of the most important scores of my life came a few decades ago when I knew about 50% of what I know now. The thing is, the one thing I did know was that trainer "x" didn't try with first time starters. However, 2nd time out, especially if he added blinkers, the horse would often make a huge jump up and win at a big price.
I wasn't building odds lines, watching money flows, or anything else. I had a piece of information that I was close to 100% sure wasn't being reflected on the odds board. The handful of bombs I caught on the biggest bets of my life up to that point FAR OUSTRIPPED the losses on everything else I was playing at that time.
I'm not sure that trainer patterns like that exist anymore with all the databases and Formulator screening tools that exist now, but I think the key for the average guy like me is not in greater complexity building odds lines. It's in finding those rare situations where you are almost certain the public and money flows are wrong.
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Probably the most important trainer patterns in the game today are short term hot and cold streaks. Some very talented players have been able to recognize these trends early on in a meet. Doing this can swing odds in your favor. Being able to throw out known trainers with good patterns when they are cold is a talent and not easy to do. Some players pick this up by watching replays and are able to determine a certain trainers horses are not running as expected. Then they can tell when it seems to turn around and adjust accordingly. Some of these players just would throw out the trainer in their pick bets unless there was some sort of extenuating circumstance. Usually a very small field or a trip you can't ignore. With so many players betting multiple tracks, this talent seems harder than ever.
