Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
When you refer to money flow, are you trying to sperate "inside" more informed money from the money being bet by the general public?
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.... if I may. And Nitro can correct me if I'm wrong. He doesn't seem to be making a distinction on whose money it is, just that the market is efficient. He hasn't expounded on it enough for me to know. But I think it's a given that late money is more efficient than earlier money.
It's like the Efficient Market Hypothesis in financial markets. A stock's value is exactly what the ticker tape say's because it reflects all known information about the stock. With any change in fact or expectation there's a thousand sharks waiting to pounce which keeps prices fair. But there must be some mispricing in the market or there is no opportunity to profit. It's one thing to buy stock and hold onto it as it increases in value over time as the overall market grows and another to be able to time the market and jump in and out as opportunities arise if anyone can really do that. EMH say's you can't.
In pari-mutuel markets there is a final end to volatility when the house quits taking bets and the tote board finally stops tallying.
Personally, I can find overlays by making a line. Really, all you need is a different opinion. This opportunity will always be there due to the randomness of the game. But ... and this is key ... I haven't made a billion dollars doing it, so I'm always listening and learning.
