Ralph has been busy, I'm sure, so I thought I'd update his work. The Atlanta Fed (real-time GDP tracking) now pegs 4Q18 real GDP at 2.4%.
https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx
Personally, I view quarterly GDP as a less-than-optimal economic indicator, given it is prone to significant revisions in the short to intermediate term. I think weekly unemployment claims are one of the better high frequency economic indicators, but the title of the thread is "let's track GDP," not weekly claims.
I wonder if the economy experienced a short-term sugar high from deficit spending over the first few quarters of the year? Remember the deficit? It's what Trump supporters cared about (rightfully so) prior to Trump taking office. According to the WHITE HOUSE, the FY19 deficit should reach almost $1.1 trillion, or almost 5.5% of GDP.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-conten...8/07/19msr.pdf
Any Trump supporters want to tell me how job creation has looked under Trump vs. Obama's last two years? Radically better? Not really.
Average monthly job creation by year:
Obama*
2015: 226k/month
2016: 195k/month
Trump
2017: 182k/month
2018: 206k/month
Source: the Trump Labor Dept
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0..._view=net_1mth
*I'm using Obama's last two years b/c that's the trend that Trump inherited.
So why does the labor market and the economy "feel" a lot better now? Because it is better. Classic late cycle dynamics--the job market tightens and wage gains start to improve (superior wage gain dynamics under Trump--did not happen during Obama's last two years).
I didn't vote for Obama, but I wonder if he'd blown the hell out of the deficit (ala Trump) if wage gains and labor force participation rates would have improved sooner???
