I like to study the running position as well as the final fractions for the derby runners in order to find value. Rough calculations show Orb coming home in about 25.9, Goldsoul 26 and Mylute 26.1. Obviously they were off the pace so how fast would they have run on a fast track? Is it good or very good?
I couldn't find any value in oxbow with come home times of 27.4 after a suicidal front running pace.
But obviously the track was deep and you have to make adjustments for that. Plus IMLD was blocked and oxbow was bumped. If you take off a sec for the track and maybe 1/3 for the bump.... maybe on a dry track Oxbow comes home in what 26? If so that's pretty damn good on the front end. by contrast SpendaBuck came home in 25.5 after a 1.10+ 3/4 and that's one of the greatest front running performances ever; these horses are running even faster...
Just really didn't like Oxs previous record it was uninspiring. Would up backing Governor Charlie/all.
Looking at it in retrospect; I'm not sure we can learn anything about the overall ranking of these horses based on these races. One race was a suicidal pace melt down; the other was a classic out in front on a slow pace. Both outcomes were highly influenced by pace.
Still confused....
