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Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I'm not buying that a horse like Hoppertunity who is a solid Grade 2 horse that runs figures in the 100-105 range on his best days and looks like he relishes 12F ran a 98 yesterday in victory or that a horse like War Story who looked razor sharp coming into this race and won it last year with a 102, ran second with a 95. I'm just not buying that was a well below PAR effort and field going 12F.
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Hoppertunity's "best days" were nearly 2 years ago. In his last 6 North American starts dating back all the way to February 2017, he has averaged a 98 BSF. The 98 BSF for the Brooklyn also falls in line with the 97 BSF he earned this year in the Tokyo City at Santa Anita which was also at 12 furlongs.
Meanwhile, War Story being razor sharp is a bit dubious. He went from a 75 BSF in a non-effort at Gulfstream to a near-career best 107 before going backwards to 100 BSF in a weak Charles Town Classic. This was followed by a nearly 2 month layoff.
Also, you should be calling into question his 102 BSF from last year's Brooklyn, not using it as evidence that he should have earned a similar figure a year later in defeat. In the 5 races that flanked that 2017 effort (3 before and 2 after), he averaged a 94 BSF. Tapwrit, who won the Belmont later that day, earned a 103 BSF. Tapwrit's Belmont was a full second faster than War Story's Brooklyn.
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The 3yos are always more problematical because you can't tell who is going to want to go that far and if they are moving forward in a more general way as they mature. But If Justify is only a 101, that means several of these horses are going backwards instead of forward or didn't like the 12F.
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Not a single horse outside of Justify had ever earned a triple digit Beyer in any previous start. In fact, you'd be hard pressed to find one that broke the 90 BSF mark more than twice in their career.
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Some of these 3yos looked like they were bred well for 12F and they should generally be moving forward. I would not be surprised if horses like Hofburg, Vino Russo, and Tenfold moved forward from previous bests and have narrowed the gap a little on Justify who made need a rest before breaking out to a new top.
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None of those ran good races Saturday. Vino Rosso got no help up front, and was forced to make an early bid at the favorite going into the far turn. Not surprisingly, he was repulsed and hung. Tenfold was bothered on the first turn and didn't stay on despite his pedigree. Hofburg, who has shown to this point that he is nothing more than a plodder who needs a pace meltdown to even make a run, plodded his way into third while no threat.
In addition, Tenfold and Hofburg--like Justify--have been on accelerated programs to make into the Triple Crown race and not surprisingly have come away with little to show for it other than some interesting mid-race moves and a few traffic problems. The talent might be there, but their connections ought to have waited until they were more ripe. Even if Justify smashed these so-called "curses" to smithereens, he's still the exception to the rule...
