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Final Summary:
My goal was to show a profit betting certain long shots(10+ on morning line) each Saturday for a year. I failed. Started well but faltered.
# of win bets = 1243
# that won = 77
% frequency = 6.2%
money bet to win = $2486
money back = $2193.60
money lost = $292.40
% loss = 11.8%
Like all losers I'd like to spin the loss a bit. At least I beat the takeout - estimated at over 17%.
According to Dave's "Percentages and Probabilities, 2012" (based on 25,000 claiming sprint races) if you had bet every horse that went off at 9:1 or higher odds, you would expect to win 3.5% of your bets. Almost doubled that figure.
As Thomas Edison would say. It was not a complete failure because I now know another something that doesn't work.
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“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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