Quote:
Originally Posted by castaway01
I'm not a speed figure basher. I've defended Beyer on here many times, and obviously CJ is one of the sharpest guys in figure making these days. However, since everyone is aware of speed figures and they drive much of the wagering dollar, aren't you just going to find that the top figure horse is usually the favorite and returns what the favorite does? Of course you would be foolish to blindly bet the top figure horse in every single race regardless of context, but do you really expect to find one figure returning 98 cents on the dollar or something that favorable? They're all going to be around the takeout rate.
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Actually, studies have shown that horses win at about the rate their odds would predict so that playing them at random would pretty much would put you around the takeout rate. If one can improve on the win percentage of favorites or come up with a few longer priced horses than favorites, using figures or some other method or combination thereof, one can beat the takeout rate and even show a profit. However it can't be done using one simplistic factor such as top figure.
