|
Why not post races that are real? That's the only way to properly analyze, and get valid feedback from the actual results. The 4 races you posted seem obviously to be hypothetical scenarios, as both horses had identical positioning, times, and days since, for their last 2 races. No disrespect meant, but a poor example, IMO.
However, based on the sparse, and unrealistic data you have provided, I would be concerned about horse A getting to the 1st call before horse B. Why? Because in horse A's last 2 races, even though it appeared to be out of form by finishing out of the money (depending on the class of those 2 fields of course), the horse appears to recently be more comfortable running as a presser to mid pack runner rather than as an "E" horse, while horse B, again, apparently off form in its last 2 races (and again, depending on the class of those 2 fields), for the same reason, ran closer to the lead in its last 2 races, and closer to being an "E/P" horse rather than a presser to mid pack runner , even though the time was slower (early positioning often has nothing to do with how fast the early pace actually is). Often a fast 1st call pace will not affect a slower horse's positioning to the 1st call if it wants to run close to the lead or on the lead (a true "E" horse), as most horses can run a fast 1st call time if need be, due to their preferred running style (especially in sprint races), and many times a true "E" or "E/P" horse will take the lead or closely press the lead under an extremely fast pace, even though the horse can not comfortably run that fast without dooming its chances of running a competitive race in the remaining portions of the race. So, that being said, horse B appears to be closer to being an "E" or "E/P" horse, recently, than horse A.
It would be nice to see data for the other horses in today's field, along with their running styles and last 2 performances to the 1st call. That data could very well favor either horse A or horse B getting to the 1st call first.
This hypothetical, is really a "complete guess", with not nearly enough data to make an informed decision.
|
