Quote:
adwplayingfool wrote:
what is the way to go? finding a 10-1 who CAN win or a 2-1 that SHOULD win?
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You need to be able to determine which way to go in any given situation. Why limit yourself to either longshots or faves?
IMO it's more like taking the things you like about a horse vs. its negatives, THEN looking at the odds and seeing if there's an overlay there for you. 2-1 does not mean the horse should win. There are enough 2-1s that don't deserve being that and the good 10-1 might still get beaten by a 20-1 that looks like nothing in the DRF. OTOH 2-1 might be a gift in some situations (e.g., lone speed horse vs. otherwise equivalent deep closers) and the 10-1 may be so just because others were bet down because they had the big/popular trainers and jocks. [EDIT] Essentially, yeah, what overlay wrote while I was busy writing my post.
