Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
That's one of the things that makes this Derby kind of interesting.
The gap between the 1st tier preps and 2nd tier preps is not very large in terms of Beyer figures this year. Owendale's Lexington (98) and even Cutting Humor's Sunland Derby (95) also fit in fairly well on Beyer.
Horses have been duplicating or exceeding their Beyers out of the Louisiana Derby (97). So that's at least encouraging.
But I can't help but think that if one of these 2nd tier prep horses wins the Derby and it's not trip related, that says more about the quality of the major preps than anything else. The 2nd tier winners haven't been crushing their fields and did not look like exceptional prospects going into them (other than maybe Spinoff). So how good can they be?
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I agree.
This year, the TimeformUS figs are especially interesting, because they account for pace. Even just the
blue vs.
red pace color indicators is something of a help to separate from very evenly spread Beyer figures.
-On the Roadster vs. By My Standards stuff - Not 100% 'fair', because out of the 20 or 30 derby points PPs, I kind of (intentionally) hand-picked those two similarities. I'm not a BMS fan (although if somebody reading this is, don't let me talk you off @ 30/1 !), and I actually was really impressed by Roadster in a few ways (his turn-of-foot, his apparent love for 9f+, and now his recent work where he basically circled the track at a good clip). Roadster is raw, and while Justify was a certainty barring trouble, injury(which he actually sustained and still won, etc...) Roadster is a lot less certain and not much better price.
However, the post was made with your comments involved; the 'paper' form doesn't match the hype. Here are two contenders with similar paper form, but radically different pricing, and that Roadster comes with a bandwagon of fans, perhaps even an underlay.
