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G1 Belmont Stakes
Many will say "What an odd field?". They'd be wrong.
The Belmont Stakes has often seen a much different field than the other 2 crowns, and has been the site of some significant and ridiculous upsets.
12Fs. This WILL be the only time these colts will ever run this distance competitively.
As post position doesn't really matter much, I'll roll through them:
Brody's Cause: Only horse in the field to beat Exaggerator. Not only once, but twice. Unfortunately, this one hasn't progressed much as a 3YO. Is this his time to shine? At very likely huge odds, I would not dismiss his chances to seriously improve in here.
Cherry Wine: Ran huge in the Preakness with a perfect trip. Belmont isn't about a perfect trip other than getting the distance. A huge play against for me.
Creator: Beat my Kentucky Derby play in the Arkansas Derby, and then ran into a decent amount of trouble in the actual Derby. The change to Irad Ortiz can't be overlooked. A talented and deep closer, that I'm not sure wants all of 12 panels.
Destin: That really wasn't a bad 6th in the Kentucky Derby. Then again, it wasn't anything special either. Trouble early, even throughout. Would have at least liked some kind of move. Will need to be on the front end if he has any chance. And 12Fs in nowhere near in his house.
Exaggerator: Favorite. Should be. He has been getting better each and every race as a 3YO. He has also been sound. An obvious favorite, and the one to beat.
Forever d'Oro: Love the breeding to get the distance. Will likely run on forever. Reality is, can he run with these now? Weird things happen, but this would be really weird.
Gettysburg: Shady entry. Has fallen well short of many in here, and distance is a joke. Da' Tara is asking questions.
Governor Malibu: Already seeing smart money on this guy. I'll take a huge pass as he hasn't beat anybody to date worth worrying about. Luv Gov is calling.
Lani: Not sure what to do. I had a huge Exagerrator/Lani Exacta in the Preakness. He ran on well to finish 5th, but could have easily ran 2nd. Connections, and the horse, really don't care what else is going on around them. They'll do their thing. I'm still confused.
Seeking The Soul: Not sure how this horse isn't already on turf. Somehow a crappy Maiden win in a crappy time can land you here.
Stradivari: I'll admit. I didn't see him having a chance in the Preakness. He ran very very well amid a really crappy trip. Johnny V stays on board, and a more sustained ride could well be what this one really needs.
Suddenbreakingnews: OK. This was my Kentucky Derby wager to WP. Yeah, he didn't hit the board. However, my Kentucky Derby wagers have done very very well in the Belmont over the years. Who do you ask? Palace Malice, Summer Bird, Jazil, and Afleet Alex for instance. Not sure this one is like those. And I'd be very surprised if he gets it done.
Trojan Nation: Still a Maiden. Ran like crap in the Derby, will run like crap here.
Well, those are my thoughts on Tuesday.
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