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I have no clue if this can be data based but I am finding something that is relatively useful for in turf racing and pace running lines.
If you use Timeform pace figures in judging the efforts of running lines and making upgrades or downgrades....
in general upgrade on the pace red figures and downgrade if they were blue.
But I am noticing something with turf races. Downgrading horses who got easy leads setting slow fractions, really slow seems to be worse, in turf races often times can hurt a horses chances as much as it helps.
Closers on turf are trained to finish, so if they dont have to use any energy to stay within site of the leaders they can finish as they have been trained, a horse who is on the lead then has to outfinish these closers when the closer hasnt used any energy to keep up. Now if I have a longshot, yea, go slow and see what happens...if I am a talented horses who shown they are good enough to win the event they are in I would like them to set a moderate pace, not fast but not slow.
The best example I can use is Hawksmoor in the Matriarch. In the race at Kee she set super duper slow fractions at 5/1, yet was caught. At Del Mar she went off at 12/1 off that effort, set moderate fractions and was just nailed late.
In dirt I am much more likely to downgrade these efforts, in turf I am just not sure anymore. It seems like I need to study energy distribution and pace more than I have, in terms of just learning the relationships with distance, surface, running style.
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