Quote:
Originally Posted by Franco Santiago
Well, I do it with database and SQL queries. But I suppose there are manual methods. To be honest, I only know about what I do, which of course, I don't readily share. But I am certain there are programs, databases, charts, info, whatever, out there for studying.
In reality, if the takeout wasn't so exorbitant, such study would NOT be necessary. But to beat the game, you gotta exploit every little edge you can think of. It takes tremendous commitment and passion. And a big rebate. And after that, it takes really strong mental stability and the ability to be in an optimal state of mind the great majority of the time. Most of all, it takes being in an optimal state of mind the great majority of the time...this is much, much more important than handicapping.
I would imagine that most of the people that are reading this message are pretty dang good handicappers...in other words they can decipher probabilities fairly well (when they are thinking straight and well). But, the true test is what you do after a horse you made a big bet on ducks in and dumps the jockey or your 10-1 gets DQ'd for some insane reason...you know what I mean. How DO you return to an optimal state of mind such that you can handicap well and construct a winning wager? WAY more important than knowing the advantages of the vet's list...but, hey, any (properly applied) edge is money, right?
I know, I digress...sorry. I love talking about this stuff.
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I like everything you say here.
My understanding is that it may be useful with a few trainers, and/or when combined with certain significant class drops (vs the scratched-out entry race, not the previous officially listed race).
It's a nice 'red flag' to be aware of. What makes it more interesting and potentially valuable (although not necessarily any more significant) compared to other 'red flags' (layoffs, workouts, class drops, private sales, jock switches, etc...) is the fact that it isn't published.
You see a red flag, and maybe it's a soft no ('pass') on a potential wager. Occasionally, the red flag and other factors will provide enough synergy to create a hard no ('bet against').
Green and Ruffian make good points;
Quote:
Originally Posted by green80
Unless you can get some reliable backside info, you will never know.
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Considering that the bulk of the pool money is bet on the entries of a relatively small number of trainers, I would be shocked if some whales/well-connected players did not obtain inside information.
