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Do the .300 hitters in baseball maintain this average during all the months of the season...or does their average fluctuate (sometimes wildly) from month to month? The concept of "averaging" is an artificial construct, created so we can make more sense of the world in which we live. We put 100 people in a room, and we say that the "average income" of the gathered crowd is $60,000 a year. And then we look closer...and we discover that NO ONE in the group makes exactly $60,000.
Likewise...the horseplayer says that his long-term winning "average" is 30%. But he forgets that this means he will score at a 15% rate during some stretches...and at a 45% clip during others. The only sure thing to be said about the world of gambling/investing, is that things will FLUCTUATE.
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"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
Last edited by thaskalos; 07-12-2018 at 04:19 PM.
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